Companies in Asia, Europe, and the United States are eagerly entering the commercialization testing phase. Autonomous trucks are addressing real-world problems by saving transportation costs and optimizing Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) through practical calculations.
By 2044, it is expected that the global trucking fleet will be supported by an additional half a million L4 autonomous drivers, while the remaining drivers will either act as supervisors or work in less developed regions. The autonomous truck industry is projected to have an annual growth rate of 25.6% over the next 20 years. This is one of the key findings from the new IDTechEx research report
Trucks have long been regarded as having great potential in commercializing autonomous driving systems. Compared to robotaxis and other mobility-service-oriented autonomous platforms, companies do not need to focus as much on user experience or integration within society.
The purpose of autonomous driving systems in trucks is to address several critical issues within the industry, with driver management being the most prominent. Unstable social conditions and COVID-19 have deterred many from becoming truck drivers.
Many young people are reluctant to spend their lives on the road when homeworking has become a viable way to build a career. The aging population exacerbates the labor shortage, making waning driver numbers cause a bottleneck in land transportation. Fewer drivers mean carriers are forced to increase wages to attract new and suitable drivers, thus raising operating costs.
Safety is another crucial consideration in the trucking industry. According to "Intelligent Safety White Paper for China's Road Freight Industry," there are 3.7 accidents per million kilometers in China's freight industry – equivalent to one traffic accident per driver every 16 months.
The annual insurance payout is about RMB 30,000 per vehicle (US$4,286), with 37% of accidents attributed to driver error and 35% related to the lack of assisting equipment. Data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration indicates that heavy-duty trucks and buses in the United States have 0.1 accidents per million kilometers, with 1% being fatal.
The significant disparity arises from differences in road traffic infrastructure between western and eastern China, differences in management regulations between developed and underdeveloped areas, and reduced insurance costs and personal injury compensation.
Using autonomous long-haul trucks has the potential to reduce the number of accidents, as autonomous driving systems do not get distracted and can facilitate more efficient and effective communication with other vehicles or devices. IDTechEx's new report delves deep into the pain points of commercializing autonomous trucks, highlighting the reasons why the industry is choosing autonomy.
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